AFL - Betting Systems - Week 10

GreenValley · Apr 30, 2008

Now that we have reached week #10 I'm going to post this years results (and will continue to do so), but the previous years results appear here for the final time.

System 1......14-1 ATS L4Y......0-2 TY
Georgia

System 2......8-32 Under L5Y......2-8 Under TY
Arizona Under

System 3......16-40 Under L2Y......2-10 Under TY
Cleveland Under
Colorado Under
Georgia Under
Arizona Under

System 4......20-5 Over L2Y......0-0 TY
Dallas Over

System 5......20-7 ATS......2-1 TY

System 6......14-2 ATS......2-0 TY

System 7......20-6 ATS......2-1 TY
New Orleans

System 8......14-4 ATS......1-5 TY
Dallas

System 9......15-2 ATS......3-2 TY

System 10......8-54 Under L4Y......0-0 TY (applies to month of May)
Cleveland Under
Colorado Under
Georgia Under
Orlando Under
Utah Under
Los Angeles Under

System 11......23-8 Over L2Y
......................8-54 Under L4Y
(Refers to totals for the second half of season)
Colorado Over
Utah Over
Georgia Under
Dallas Under
Tampa Bay Under

System 12......13-5 ATS LY......7-2 TY
Tampa Bay

Note:....There are three games this week that qualify with conflicting totals:
Colorado
Dallas
Utah

Trends Of Interest
Cleveland 9-33 SU as dog
Cleveland 11-1 ATS vs. the East.....3-1 TY
Dallas 16-4 as road favorite......losing the last 2.
Grand Rapids 11-3 Over vs. the West
Utah 15-6 Over as favorite

BOL,
Green Valley

rolltide · May 1, 2008

any thoughts on why system 8 has completely flipped this season?

GreenValley · May 2, 2008

rolltide

I wish I could give you a concrete answer but I can’t. It had a nice
3 year record of 14-4 ATS entering this year and has come up with a 1-5 TY.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
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Here’s some background.<o></o>
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In the CFL it had a 18-6 ATS run as well for 4Y (9-0 ATS if team was over .500) going into last year and because the week off rotation changed, as a result of them having an even number of teams, it then came up with a 1-2 mark which I can understand. The party could be over.<o></o>
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Also experimented and applied it to the NFL the last 2Y where it produced a respectable 20-9 ATS record having to contend with teams like <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City w:st="on">Miami</st1:City>, <st1:City w:st="on">Atlanta</st1:City>, <st1:City w:st="on">San Francisco</st1:City> and <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">St. Louis,</st1lace></st1:City> doing shit for the whole year as well, and producing an 0-4 ATS mark. I may give it some consideration again this year.<o></o>
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You have to give some credit to the more competitive teams when looking at who qualifies each week. My observation right now is that of the 1-5 ATS TY in the AFL, all six teams did not have a winning record and all lost SU again, the only cover was KC as a double digit dog at home losing by 8. We're just not getting over .500 teams going for us like in the CFL with 9-0 ATS.<o></o>
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The teams just aren’t the caliber of ones you’d like to put your money on. This week’s team to bet on is <st1:City w:st="on">Dallas</st1:City> at 7-1 going against a 2-6 <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Columbus</st1:City></st1lace> so maybe they can get the job done.

BOL,
Green Valley<o></o>

rolltide · May 2, 2008

thx...appreciate the overview. you have any stats on AFL teams playing with just 3 days of rest like Philly are tonight? I know they are phenomenal but 3 days rest after their GOY can be a nice spot for getting 11.5 pts

GreenValley · May 2, 2008

rolltide

I haven't come across anything in regards to 3 days rest for a team. I have seen on stats analogies at other locations a scenario for playing on 6 or less days rest, but nothing for 3, which falls within that parameter.

6 days or less for Philly L3Y:
16-12 SU
13-14 ATS
12-16 under

That's the most I can offer

BOL,
Green Valley

AFLGuru · May 2, 2008

rolltide said:
thx...appreciate the overview. you have any stats on AFL teams playing with just 3 days of rest like Philly are tonight? I know they are phenomenal but 3 days rest after their GOY can be a nice spot for getting 11.5 pts

Catching points in the AFL is weird. You basically have to ask yourself if you really believe that the underdog you're trying to bet on has a reasonable chance to win the game or not. My rule of thumb is to look at that moneyline.

If you could reasonably see yourself betting on a team the team you're looking at on the moneyline and winning enough times to do better than break even, taking the points is a real good idea.

There are just too many situations in the AFL where you're in it the whole game, going back and forth between down 3 and up 4, and then end up losing by 10 because of a stupid play at the end.... also just a general rule of thumb that I've seen over the course of time... the worse the team, the more likely you are to see something stupid happen to COST you, instead of the other way around.

Ask yourself these things about Cleveland tonight. Do you really think they can win this game 1 out of 4 times?

Like I said in the other thread, gun to my head, I'm taking the points... but if I can't look myself in the mirror and honestly say that the Glads are going to win this game 1 out of 4 (or 4.5 as the case may have it) times, I can't take the points regardless of the situation in terms of days off.

I know it doesn't work for everybody (or necessarily anybody else for that matter), and I wouldn't use this rule of thumb in any other sport, but it's generally the guideline that I use.

For that EXACT reason tomorrow, I'm considering taking San Jose over Orlando. The SaberCats are going to win this game more than 47ish% of the time in my opinion, so I can take the 2.5 pts.